13 January 2016
Why USA is not needed to “balance” China
By: Karsten Riise
In a research paper “Future of Security”, I point out, that if China pushes too hard for egoistic expansion, China will create hostility and be balanced by Russia, India and Japan.
Reading Jack Snyder’s very worth-while book “Myths of Empire”, he develops the term “self-encirclement”. This is in line with classic realist international theory, and it is exactly the process I identified may happen – but only if China pushes too hard, and too egoistically.
China has room for moderate expansion, especially in the South-East Asian direction (the Chinese “Caribbean”), because that area has a power-vacuum, and Taiwan and the South-China Sea are of some legitimate interest to China. But an over-expansionist China will meet the same fate as over-expansionist Germany did – creating a powerful “Entente” of enemies united from all sides.
Chinese are smart people. If China thinks smart, China will enhance its new power-sharing understanding with Russia to encompass India – creating a power-triad – a security community (I refer to Deutsch’s term). Just like USA after WWII has had a global power-sharing with UK, France and Germany.
Japan-Korea, Vietnam and the Philippines can probably all find an acceptable and even beneficial place in such a new China-centered system. Only Taiwan will really need USA to stay independent – and even for Taiwan the USAs relevance in the long run is doubtful, because China is already about to tip the military balance around Taiwan to its favor.
The USA is generally not needed to “balance” China – the neighbors will do it, if necessary.
Karsten Riise
Partner & Editor
CHANGE NEWS &
CHANGE MANAGEMENT
