Saturday, October 3, 2015

Taiwan issue








3 October 2015
Taiwan defense predicament 

By: Karsten Riise

China is bent on regaining Taiwan and builds up enormous resources for this end. The USA seems to be the only issue which can (still) complicate matters for China.


According to Chinese strategist Zun Tsu, the best strategy is to win without even having to fight - and I am sure that the political and military leadership of China know their Zun Tsu Classic by Heart. It is also clear, that China is determined to regain Taiwan, even if the effort will take 20 - 50 or 150 years. USA's power in Asia will not last THAT long, that's pretty sure.

So China's move should according to my advice and analysis be to persistently discredit USA's power and interests - especially all over Asia. But also in other parts of the world like Syria, where signs are, that China now seems to send support against USA's declared enemy, al-Assad (China has surely not forgiven, that USA's intervention in Libya kicked out Chinese oil-interests along with 30,000 Chinese oil-workers there).

China must, in my advice, humiliate and negate USA's image of power again, and again, and again.

So much, that Taiwan like all other Asians in the end give up believing in USA's global power and commitment, and Taiwan will cede itself to China. In a kind of negotiated "Hong-Kong solution", keeping a degree of independence for Taiwan within a unified Chinese state.


Karsten Riise
Partner & Editor


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