Published by
prof. Martin van Creveld
http://www.martin-van-creveld.com/guest-article-view-jade-emperor-north-korea-right-china/
14 December 2017
The View of the Jade Emperor:
Why North Korea is right for China
The View of the Jade Emperor:
Why North Korea is right for China
By:
Karsten Riise
It
is always a delight to read William S. Lind. His informed way of putting issues
on their head is thought-inspiring, and always makes you wiser – even if, as in
this particular case, he happens not to be right.
Is North Korea really a disadvantage to China?
In an
analysis “The North Korea Threat to China” 9 November 2017, Lind argues, that
North Korea should be seen as a threat by China. Briefly put, his argument is
that North Korea’s possession of nuclear weapons may induce Japan, South Korea,
and perhaps even one day Vietnam to acquire their own nuclear arsenal. And that
indigenous nuclear arsenals in the hands of China’s immediate neighbors would
make it difficult for China to create a buffer-zone of client states around
herself.
It
serves China
This
argument neglects the Olympic fact that China is already confronted by an
enormous arsenal of US nuclear weapons, based in South Korea, Okinawa and
aboard the US Navy. It also overlooks the fact that some American leaders, due
to their country’s faraway location, may be much more prone to risk a nuclear
confrontation in East Asia than the indigenous countries inside the region are.
Accordingly,
my response to Lind is that China must be happy with North Korea and its
nuclear policies. If North Korea can somehow cause the enormous arsenal of US
nuclear weapons on China’s doorstep to be swapped for a much smaller nuclear
arsenal controlled by the people who live close to China’s borders, and who
depend on good relations with China, not only for their survival, but also for
their prosperity – then China should be satisfied.
Finally,
we must remember that North Korea has a pivotal role as a friendly buffer state
for China.
North
Korea needs a nuclear deterrent
Unfortunately,
North Korea needs nuclear weapons as a deterrent against the USA.
In
1945, the USA used nuclear bombs not once but twice. You might have thought
that one such mass-killing was enough. But it wasn’t. General Douglas McArthur
wanted to use nuclear weapons against North Korea, but fortunately was
prevented from doing so by his president, Harry Truman. At the time, in closed
talks, the US leaders shocked the British by casually hinting that the USA was
considering attacking Communist China with nuclear weapons. To calm their
allies they said that, in that case, they would “avoid striking the bigger
cities” (Gribb-Fitzgibbons, Imperial Endgame, 2011). During the Vietnam War
Henry Kissinger, according to a TV documentary, raised the possibility of
“nuking” North Vietnam, telling Nixon “don’t be so shy about it”.
Numerous
historic deliberations of the USA to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear
adversaries, and the way the USA breaks its commitment on the Iran nuclear
deal, all confirm this.
North
Korea needs intercontinental capability
Now you
would think that North Korean possession of nuclear weapons capable of
devastating its neighbors Japan and South Korea should be enough to deter the
USA from attacking. But unfortunately it is not.
The
current panic in Washington DC, just as North Korea is on the verge of
acquiring missiles capable of reaching the continental USA, proves that, deep
inside the minds of US leaders, there has been a false sense of comfort that
any US escalation to a nuclear exchange involving North Korea could not touch the
American homeland. It even seems to make a difference to US leaders whether
North Korea can “only” reach Guam, Alaska or California – or if North Korea can
hit their own personal residences in Washington DC. Now, due to North Korea’s
new long-range missiles, that false sense of US comfort in its ability to apply
nuclear blackmail is about to evaporate.
In
other words, North Korea now makes sure that nuclear deterrence in East Asia
will become absolutely effective.
It is
often argued that North Korea is somehow posing a problem for China. That is
entirely wrong. North Korea acts as a “wild-dog on a leash” – and China holds
the leash. This is exactly similar to the old play of “good-cop”/“bad-cop.”
North Korea plays the role of “bad-cop,” and allows China to play the
“moderator.” Thus China can always enter the scene as the “good-regional-cop,”
as an indispensable partner in talks with the USA.
China’s
play-book works every single time.
China now gets into an even better position vs. the USA
Armed
with nuclear missiles capable of reaching Washington DC, North Korea becomes an
even better “bad-cop.” As the false sense of comfort of the US leadership
vanishes, the “wild-dog” on China’s leash becomes ever more awe-inspiring for
the USA.
Now
the USA needs China even more, so as to handle the “wild-dog.”
What
China – and North Korea – do is, from their point of view, quite correct.
Karsten Riise
Partner & Editor
CHANGE MANAGEMENT
